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FlightsTO 4619
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How will Transavia France 4619 Malaga → Paris arrive on Nov 15?

TO4619 flies from Malaga to Paris. 80% on time over the last 30 days (5 tracked flights).

The journey

Live
Spotting973 · CC BY-SA 2.0
Transavia FranceTO4619

Chance

Connecting
  • On time
    60%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    39%
  • Cancelled
    1%
$345 vol

Chance comes from the market price, which can show before any trade happens. On settled markets it's the final price. It isn't our forecast or an official status.

Price history

Loading price historyOn time60%Delayed39%Cancelled1%
Loading price history

Current prices are shown above.

Timeline and payout

  1. In the air
    Market opens
    11:58 PM UTC
  2. Market closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Payout
    Waiting on the result

Recent performance

80%on time
1delayed0cancelled
Oct 17Nov 15

Recent trades

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Rules

Settles "Delayed" if the flight arrives more than the delay threshold after its scheduled arrival, and "On time" if it arrives within the threshold, including exactly at it. We use FAA records for US airports, and the destination airport's own published arrival time and schedule elsewhere. The threshold and scheduled arrival are fixed when the market opens.

Trades accepted after the flight's arrival is first published are voided and refunded in full, fees included. Bonus trades are refunded to your bonus balance. The publication time is the time on the flight-data message, or when an airport's board showed us the arrival. If the recorded arrival time is earlier, that is the cutoff.

Delay threshold: 15 minutes.

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You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You work for an organization whose data settles this market.
  • You have material non-public information about what this market measures.