Will Iberia Airlines IB 1509 from Madrid to Lanzarote Island arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Oct 2?
Over the last 30 days IB1509 has arrived on time on 94% of its 17 tracked flights between Madrid and Lanzarote Island — 1 late and 0 cancelled.
The journey
What the market thinks
Connecting- On time77%
chance of on time
- Delayed21%
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens7:44 PM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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