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FlightsAAL 254

American Airlines AAL 254 from Kahului to Los Angeles was delayed on Sep 28

Over the last 30 days AAL254 has arrived on time on 85% of its 26 tracked flights between Kahului and Los Angeles — 4 late and 0 cancelled.

Settled · Result

Delayed

market said 54%

Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against its published schedule; delayed means more than 15 minutes late

Scheduled
Sep 29, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC
Recorded
Sep 29, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC
Evidence received
Sep 29, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0
American AirlinesAAL254

Where it finished

  • On time
    46%
  • DelayedResult
    54%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    0%
$283 vol

The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time46%Delayed54%Cancelled0%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    5:18 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    5:11 AM UTC
  3. Settles
    Settled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right

Recent performance

85%on time
4delayed0cancelled
Sep 1Sep 30

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
54%
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