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FLIGHTS·FM 9318

Will FM 9318 from Guangzhou to Shanghai arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 16?

Over the last 30 days FM9318 has arrived on time on 41% of its 32 tracked flights between Guangzhou and Shanghai — 18 late and 1 cancelled.

The journey

Anna Zvereva from Tallinn, Estonia · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    30%
  • Delayed
    68%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    2%
$19 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time30%Delayed68%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    4:05 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result
Recent performance
41%on time
18delayed1cancelled
Aug 17Sep 15

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
68%