Will Air Canada AC 4476 from Grand Rapids to Chicago arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 26?
Over the last 30 days AC4476 has arrived on time on 83% of its 23 tracked flights between Grand Rapids and Chicago — 3 late and 1 cancelled.
Trading closed — waiting on the result
Trading has closed, so no more trades can be placed. We keep checking the authoritative record and valid alternatives. Each contract on the outcome that happens pays $1.00 once a valid outcome is established and the market settles; a missing report does not itself establish an outcome or start an automatic refund deadline.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time16%
- Delayed82%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- ArrivingOpens10:10 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.