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FLIGHTS·AAL 4006

Will AAL 4006 from El Paso to Chicago arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 15?

AAL4006 flies between El Paso and Chicago. No earlier run of this flight has been tracked yet.

The journey

Live
Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    12%
  • Delayed
    87%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    1%
$411 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time12%Delayed87%Cancelled1%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Arriving
    Opens
    7:36 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

People are also trading

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You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
87%