Will UAL 4815 from Dulles to Charlottesville arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 14?
Over the last 30 days UAL4815 has arrived on time on 63% of its 24 tracked flights between Dulles and Charlottesville — 9 late and 0 cancelled.
Waiting on the result
The result has not been reported yet. We keep checking, and the market settles automatically the moment it arrives. There is no deadline, and no funds have moved.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time95%
chance of on time
- Delayed5%
- Cancelled0%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens1:21 AM UTC
- Closes5:47 PM UTC
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.