Will AAL 4588 from Cleveland to New York arrive on time on Sep 13?
Over the last 30 days AAL4588 has arrived on time on 48% of its 44 tracked flights between Cleveland and New York — 13 late and 10 cancelled.
Waiting on the result
The result has not been reported yet. We keep checking, and the market settles automatically the moment it arrives. There is no deadline, and no funds have moved.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time58%
chance of on time
- Delayed40%
- Cancelled2%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens8:13 PM UTC
- Closes3:40 PM UTC
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.