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FLIGHTS·UAL 5518

UAL 5518 from Chicago to Tucson was delayed on Sep 19

Over the last 30 days UAL5518 has arrived on time on 62% of its 21 tracked flights between Chicago and Tucson — 8 late and 0 cancelled.

Settled · Result

Delayed

market said 34%

Settled on the recorded arrival time against the scheduled arrival fixed when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late

Scheduled
Sep 19, 2026, 5:48 PM UTC
Recorded
Sep 19, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC
Evidence received
Sep 19, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

The journey

Anna Zvereva from Tallinn, Estonia · CC BY-SA 2.0

Where it finished

  • On time
    64%
  • DelayedResult
    34%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    2%
$5 vol

The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time64%Delayed34%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    1:23 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    6:13 PM UTC
  3. Settles
    Settled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
62%on time
8delayed0cancelled
Aug 27Sep 25

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.