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FLIGHTS·AAL 2444

Will AAL 2444 from Chicago to St Louis arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 15?

Over the last 30 days AAL2444 has arrived on time on 63% of its 30 tracked flights between Chicago and St Louis — 10 late and 1 cancelled.

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    43%
  • Delayed
    55%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    2%
$87 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time43%Delayed55%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    6:17 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result
Recent performance
66%on time
9delayed1cancelled
Aug 17Sep 15

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
55%