Will American Airlines AA 2817 from Chicago to San Francisco arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Oct 2?
Over the last 30 days AA2817 has arrived on time on 65% of its 49 tracked flights between Chicago and San Francisco — 16 late and 1 cancelled.
Trading closed — waiting on the result
Trading has closed, so no more trades can be placed. We keep checking the authoritative record and valid alternatives. Each contract on the outcome that happens pays $1.00 once a valid outcome is established and the market settles; a missing report does not itself establish an outcome or start an automatic refund deadline.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time70%
chance of on time
- Delayed28%
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- ArrivingOpens11:30 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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