Will AAL 1264 from Chicago to New York arrive on time on Sep 13?
AAL1264 flies between Chicago and New York. No earlier run of this flight has been tracked yet.
Waiting on settlement data
The outcome has not been reported yet. We keep checking and will settle automatically as soon as the data arrives — there is no deadline and no funds have moved.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time69%
chance of on time
- Delayed30%
- Cancelled2%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens1:05 AM UTC
- Closes1:02 PM UTC
- SettlesWaiting on settlement data
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the flight's recorded arrival time from authoritative tracking data. The market's terms, the delay threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against, are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
15+ min late counts as "delayed"
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.