Will American Airlines AAL 4038 from Chicago to Madison arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 26?
Over the last 30 days AAL4038 has arrived on time on 74% of its 46 tracked flights between Chicago and Madison — 8 late and 4 cancelled.
The journey
What the market thinks
Connecting- On time75%
chance of on time
- Delayed23%
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens12:44 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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