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FLIGHTS·AAL 3690

AAL 3690 from Chicago to Hebron was delayed on Sep 19

Over the last 30 days AAL3690 has arrived on time on 56% of its 25 tracked flights between Chicago and Hebron — 9 late and 2 cancelled.

Settled · Result

Delayed

market said 42%

Settled on the recorded arrival time against the scheduled arrival fixed when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late

Scheduled
Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM UTC
Recorded
Sep 20, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC
Evidence received
Sep 20, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

Where it finished

  • On time
    56%
  • DelayedResult
    42%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    2%
$90 vol

The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time56%Delayed42%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    5:29 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    1:31 AM UTC
  3. Settles
    Settled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
56%on time
9delayed2cancelled
Aug 27Sep 25

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.