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FLIGHTS·AAL 3964

Will AAL 3964 from Chicago to Denver arrive on time on Sep 13?

Over the last 30 days AAL3964 has arrived on time on 47% of its 34 tracked flights between Chicago and Denver — 6 late and 12 cancelled.

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    53%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    45%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$74 vol0 trades

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

No trades yetOn time53%Delayed45%Cancelled2%
No trades yet

Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.

Timeline

  1. Scheduled to arrive
    Opens
    5:09 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Instant & automatic
Recent performance
47%on time
6delayed12cancelled
Aug 15Sep 13

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the flight's recorded arrival time from authoritative tracking data. The market's terms, the delay threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against, are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

15+ min late counts as "delayed"

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
On time
53%