Will NZ 3854 from Chengdu to Shanghai arrive on time on Sep 13?
NZ3854 flies between Chengdu and Shanghai. No earlier run of this flight has been tracked yet.
The journey
What the market thinks
Connecting- On time52%
chance of on time
- Delayed46%
- Cancelled2%
$98 vol0 trades
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
No trades yetOn time52%Delayed46%Cancelled2%
No trades yet
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens5:23 PM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesInstant & automatic
Recent trades
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How it settles
We read the flight's recorded arrival time from authoritative tracking data. The market's terms, the delay threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against, are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
15+ min late counts as "delayed"
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
On time
52%