Will American Airlines AA 860 from Buffalo to New York arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 29?
Over the last 30 days AA860 has arrived on time on 54% of its 26 tracked flights between Buffalo and New York — 12 late and 0 cancelled.
Trading closed — waiting on the result
Trading has closed, so no more trades can be placed. We keep checking the authoritative record and valid alternatives. Each contract on the outcome that happens pays $1.00 once a valid outcome is established and the market settles; a missing report does not itself establish an outcome or start an automatic refund deadline.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time55%
chance of on time
- Delayed43%
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- ArrivingOpens11:21 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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