Learn

Glossary

Plain-language definitions of the terms used across GADUIN — the prediction market for supply-chain disruption. Each entry is a short, standalone definition you can quote.

Where useful, terms point to the fuller explainers in Learn.

Event contract: A yes/no instrument on the outcome of a real-world event that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Its price between those values is the market-implied probability of the event.
Prediction market: A marketplace where participants trade contracts on future events, so the price of a contract reflects the crowd's collective, money-backed estimate of how likely an outcome is.
Settlement: The process of resolving a market once its event has happened: winning contracts pay out $1 each and losing contracts pay $0. On GADUIN, settlement is automatic.
Public-data settlement: Resolving a market from a named, publicly available data source rather than an operator's judgement — so any participant can independently verify how a contract resolved.
Supply-chain disruption: Any interruption to the normal flow of goods and transport — a delayed flight, a cancelled train, a congested port, or a blocked shipping chokepoint — that ripples into schedules, costs, and inventory.
Maritime chokepoint: A narrow, heavily used shipping passage — such as the Suez or Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, or Bab-el-Mandeb — where congestion or closure can disrupt global trade.
Throughput: The volume of traffic that clears a port or chokepoint over a period of time. Falling throughput is a direct signal of congestion or disruption.
ADS-B: Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast: the transponder standard by which aircraft continuously broadcast their position and identity. Public ADS-B data settles GADUIN's flight markets.
AIS: Automatic Identification System: the maritime transponder standard by which vessels broadcast their position and course. Public AIS data helps settle GADUIN's shipping markets.
IMF PortWatch: An open dataset from the International Monetary Fund that measures maritime trade and traffic through the world's ports and chokepoints. GADUIN uses it to settle throughput markets.
National Rail: The network of scheduled passenger rail services across Great Britain. Its public running data — actual arrival times and cancellations — settles GADUIN's rail markets.
Delay threshold: The number of minutes past the scheduled time at which an arrival counts as delayed for a given market. A contract settles as delayed only once the recorded arrival passes this fixed threshold.
Cancellation: When a scheduled service does not run at all. Markets typically treat a cancellation as a distinct settled outcome, defined in the market's resolution rule.
Settlement source: The specific public data source and query a market commits to when it opens. It is fixed at activation, shown on the market page, and cannot be changed after the first trade.
Zero fees: GADUIN charges no fee to place a trade. The price you pay for a contract is the market price, with no trading commission added on top.

Glossary

Plain-language definitions of the terms used across GADUIN — the prediction market for supply-chain disruption. Each entry is a short, standalone definition you can quote.

Where useful, terms point to the fuller explainers in Learn.

Event contract

A yes/no instrument on the outcome of a real-world event that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Its price between those values is the market-implied probability of the event.

Prediction market

A marketplace where participants trade contracts on future events, so the price of a contract reflects the crowd's collective, money-backed estimate of how likely an outcome is.

Settlement

The process of resolving a market once its event has happened: winning contracts pay out $1 each and losing contracts pay $0. On GADUIN, settlement is automatic.

Public-data settlement

Resolving a market from a named, publicly available data source rather than an operator's judgement — so any participant can independently verify how a contract resolved.

Supply-chain disruption

Any interruption to the normal flow of goods and transport — a delayed flight, a cancelled train, a congested port, or a blocked shipping chokepoint — that ripples into schedules, costs, and inventory.

Maritime chokepoint

A narrow, heavily used shipping passage — such as the Suez or Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, or Bab-el-Mandeb — where congestion or closure can disrupt global trade.

Throughput

The volume of traffic that clears a port or chokepoint over a period of time. Falling throughput is a direct signal of congestion or disruption.

ADS-B

Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast: the transponder standard by which aircraft continuously broadcast their position and identity. Public ADS-B data settles GADUIN's flight markets.

AIS

Automatic Identification System: the maritime transponder standard by which vessels broadcast their position and course. Public AIS data helps settle GADUIN's shipping markets.

IMF PortWatch

An open dataset from the International Monetary Fund that measures maritime trade and traffic through the world's ports and chokepoints. GADUIN uses it to settle throughput markets.

National Rail

The network of scheduled passenger rail services across Great Britain. Its public running data — actual arrival times and cancellations — settles GADUIN's rail markets.

Delay threshold

The number of minutes past the scheduled time at which an arrival counts as delayed for a given market. A contract settles as delayed only once the recorded arrival passes this fixed threshold.

Cancellation

When a scheduled service does not run at all. Markets typically treat a cancellation as a distinct settled outcome, defined in the market's resolution rule.

Settlement source

The specific public data source and query a market commits to when it opens. It is fixed at activation, shown on the market page, and cannot be changed after the first trade.

Zero fees

GADUIN charges no fee to place a trade. The price you pay for a contract is the market price, with no trading commission added on top.