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FLIGHTS·FM 829
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Will FM 829 from Shanghai to Busan arrive on time on Sep 14?

FM829 flies between Shanghai and Busan. No earlier run of this flight has been tracked yet.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    90%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    8%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$0 vol0 trades

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

No trades yetOn time90%Delayed8%Cancelled2%
No trades yet

Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.

Timeline

  1. Scheduled to arrive
    Opens
    3:03 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Instant & automatic

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
90%