AF 4815 from Gran Canaria Island to Madrid was delayed on Sep 13
AF4815 flies between Gran Canaria Island and Madrid. No earlier run of this flight has been tracked yet.
Delayed
market said 33%Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against its published schedule; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 13, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 13, 2026, 12:04 PM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 13, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On time65%
- DelayedResult33%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled2%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens5:43 PM UTC
- Closes12:26 PM UTC
- SettlesResolved: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the flight's recorded arrival time from authoritative tracking data. The market's terms, the delay threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against, are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
15+ min late counts as "delayed"
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.