Learn
Learn
GADUIN is the prediction market for supply-chain disruption. These short guides explain what you are trading, how each market settles, and where the settlement data comes from — the essentials, in a few minutes each.
Every market on GADUIN is a yes/no event contract that pays out from a public data source. The three explainers below build up the whole picture: what an event contract is, how settlement works step by step, and which public feeds stand behind flight, rail, and shipping markets. The glossary defines the vocabulary you will meet across the site.
Guides
How settlement works
The three-step model behind every market: commit to a public data source when the market opens, wait for the event, then settle automatically from that source.
What is an event contract?
Yes/no contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price reads directly as the market-implied probability of the outcome.
The public data that settles our markets
The named public feeds behind flight, rail, and shipping markets — ADS-B, National Rail, AIS, and IMF PortWatch — and why public-data settlement leaves no room for discretion.
Glossary
Plain-language definitions of event contracts, settlement, maritime chokepoints, ADS-B, AIS, and the rest of the vocabulary you will meet across the site.
Keep exploring
For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit, and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.